What factors are driving the demand for distribution transformers?
A new study by a research institute further explores the key factors and segmentation behind the transformer demand growth in 2050.
1, transformer demand type
Two factors drive transformer demand: the number of transformers that fail and need to be replaced, and the number of new customers each year. To understand the potential demand for different types of transformers, NREL studied which major industries need which transformers and the drivers of demand. Yahweh found that the capacity demand for distribution transformers in use in 2050 could increase by up to 260% from 2021 levels. Much of the expected growth is likely to come from data center demand, the electrification of transportation, and an increase in booster transformers needed for wind and solar power. "The massive growth of data centers will require so-called tri-coherent transformers," McKenna said. "The growth of public electric vehicle (EV) charging stations will require more three-phase oil-immersed transformers. Electrification of buildings and charging of electric vehicles in homes will require a significant increase in the size of single-phase transformers."
2. The risk of aging infrastructure
To get an idea of the replacement rate required for a transformer, Yawei examined the transformers currently in use. This includes recording the age of the transformer, when it is likely to fail, and how new demand will put pressure on the asset. Yawei uses the service life and failure rate of the housing stock to determine the service life of today's transformers. According to the analysis, Avy found that these assets have been used for far longer than their expected life, with about 55% of the transformers in service being at least 33 years old, near the end of their useful lives. "In many cases, assets that were expected to last 30 to 40 years can actually last 40, 50, even 60 + years," McKenna says. Ageing infrastructure combined with expected demand growth is expected to accelerate failure rates, especially after 2030. The increase in extreme weather may also lead to investments in more resilient transformer types and the replacement of existing rod transformers.
3. Long-term planning of modern power grid
Avy is refining estimates and demand forecasts for in-service transformers based on new industry data and building different demand scenarios. "We're looking at some important details, including what strategies utilities employ to replace transformers that fail," McKenna said. "The type of transformer and the utility company's strategy for replacing the transformer can have a significant impact on the long term." Because there are many variables, Yaway is looking at how utility replacement strategies will affect long-term demand to create potential aggregate demand estimate scenarios. McKenna said: "This work is critical to how we plan for electricity delivery in the future. We are looking at the best strategies for managing long-term demand and avoiding short-sighted planning approaches."
